:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
09/0310Z from Region 3217 (S10E63). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 08/2100Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 09/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 09/0311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1220 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (12 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day three (12 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 215
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 214/212/212
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  010/008-008/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/15