:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
11/1548Z from Region 3217 (S09E36). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13
Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 10/2246Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/1550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0751Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 981 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14
Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    80/75/75
Class X    30/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 210
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 210/205/205
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20