:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
12/0848Z from Region 3217 (S12E22). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 11/2159Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/2222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0215Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1206 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    80/75/65
Class X    25/25/20
Proton     20/20/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 200
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 200/195/190
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  006/005-007/010-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/45