:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
14/1212Z from Region 3213 (N28W92). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (15 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 13/2132Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1536Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1751 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (17 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    55/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 180
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 178/178/178
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  011/015-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/30/15