:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/0523Z from Region 3213 (N28W0*). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (16 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 14/2306Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 15/0810Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 15/1914Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 571 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (16 Feb, 17
Feb) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    45/35/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 174
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 175/172/170
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  024/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  018/018-014/022-023/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           25/30/40
Major-severe storm    05/15/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    60/70/80