:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
17/2016Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 17/0300Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 17/0036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/0155Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (18 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (19 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (20 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 343
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 160/155/145
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  021/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  023/030-012/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/15
Minor Storm           40/15/01
Major-severe storm    20/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    70/50/20