:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
18/1200Z from Region 3226 (N10W33). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 490 km/s at 17/2348Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/1222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/1243Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 225 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (19 Feb, 21 Feb)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (20 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (19 Feb) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     25/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 167
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 160/150/140
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  012/020-017/025-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor Storm           15/30/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    45/70/50