:Product: 0219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
19/0817Z from Region 3226 (N10W47). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 19/1454Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 19/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/1155Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (20 Feb) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (21 Feb, 22
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     20/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Feb 169
Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb 160/150/140
90 Day Mean        19 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  020/025-014/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           30/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/35