:Product: 0220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
20/1458Z from Region 3234 (N24E76). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 20/1301Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 20/1139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1822Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 471 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Feb, 22 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Feb). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22
Feb, 23 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Feb 160
Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 158/156/152
90 Day Mean        20 Feb 163

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  012/015-010/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/25