:Product: 0221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
21/2017Z from Region 3234 (N24E60). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 21/1903Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 21/0957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
21/1031Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 427 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Feb,
23 Feb, 24 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 161
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 158/154/152
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  010/012-007/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/25