:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0614Z from Region 3235 (N19E08). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 23/0654Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 22/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 22/2332Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1008 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Feb, 26 Feb)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Feb). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 148
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 148/146/146
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  011/012-008/010-010/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/30/40