:Product: 0226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/1200Z from Region 3235 (N19W34). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 26/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 26/2058Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 26/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (27 Feb), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (01 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(27 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/50/25
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 159
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 167

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  037/056-020/032-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           10/20/25
Major-severe storm    90/75/60