:Product: 0228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
28/1750Z from Region 3234 (N25W36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 784 km/s at 27/2141Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 28/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 28/0044Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 735 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (03
Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    50/50/45
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 161
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 160/160/156
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  060/109
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  013/016-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    60/30/20