:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0107Z from Region 3234 (N25W49). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 28/2253Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 01/0756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/2347Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3729 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (03 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Mar).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (02 Mar, 03 Mar, 04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    50/45/45
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 162
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 164/162/158
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  008/008-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/30
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/20/40