:Product: 0304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
04/1557Z from Region 3234 (N25W90). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 03/2202Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/2225Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1697 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (05 Mar, 06
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Mar). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05
Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 182
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 185/190/195
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  016/022-016/020-015/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/30
Minor Storm           30/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    65/65/40