:Product: 0307RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/0405Z from Region 3243 (N18W89). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar, 10 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 656 km/s at 07/0126Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 06/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/2108Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3295 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (10 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Mar 180
Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar 180/180/178
90 Day Mean        07 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  011/015-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20