:Product: 0308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/1012Z from Region 3242 (N10W15). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 07/2121Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/1700Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4293 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 Mar, 11
Mar) and quiet levels on day two (10 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    40/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 182
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 178/175/172
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/25