:Product: 0309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/2244Z from Region 3245 (S23E07). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 09/1718Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 09/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
09/0614Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3480 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 179
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 178/175/170
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  008/008-008/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/30