:Product: 0310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
10/0708Z from Region 3245 (S23W18). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar,
13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 10/1100Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/0656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/1527Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1982 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (11 Mar,
12 Mar, 13 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 171
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 172/170/160
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  008/008-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/30/25