:Product: 0312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/0719Z from Region 3253 (S30W01). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 12/0856Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 12/0903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
12/0639Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 726 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (15
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 150
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 150/145/140
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  005/005-007/008-016/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/35
Minor Storm           01/05/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/25/65