:Product: 0314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
14/0605Z from Region 3250 (S18W22). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (15 Mar, 16 Mar)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (17 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 14/0837Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 14/0431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
14/0814Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16 pfu at 14/2035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 504 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Mar, 16
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Mar). Protons
greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (15 Mar)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     99/25/01
PCAF       in progress

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Mar 139
Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 140/142/150
90 Day Mean        14 Mar 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  020/025-021/025-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           30/30/05
Major-severe storm    10/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/70/25