:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/1255Z from Region 3245 (S24W98). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Mar,
18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 16/0034Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 15/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 15/2122Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 135
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 135/140/138
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20