:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1507Z from Region 3247 (S24W78). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Mar,
19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 17/0018Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 17/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
17/0327Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 166 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Mar, 19 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (20 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 134
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 132/130/128
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  006/005-006/005-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/40