:Product: 0318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
18/0716Z from Region 3256 (S22E66). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar,
21 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 18/0334Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 18/1556Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/0339Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 198 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 140
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 138/138/138
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  006/005-011/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/45/50