:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
19/1809Z from Region 3256 (S22E54). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar,
22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 19/1016Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 19/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/0446Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 280 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and
quiet levels on day three (22 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 143
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 143/140/140
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  011/015-015/018-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/15
Minor Storm           15/15/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    45/50/20