:Product: 0320RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0148Z from Region 3256 (S20E39). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar,
23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 20/1126Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 20/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/1335Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 156
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 155/150/150
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  015/018-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/15
Minor Storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    50/20/20