:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/2357Z from Region 3257 (S28E40). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 22/1112Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 21/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/0137Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 540 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and active to minor storm levels
on day three (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 159
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  015/020-028/040-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           35/45/40
Major-severe storm    10/20/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    75/85/80