:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 22/2109Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 23/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 23/1859Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 323 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (24 Mar), active to
minor storm levels on day two (25 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 151
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  023/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  024/035-020/030-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           45/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    85/65/55