:Product: 0324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/1340Z from Region 3259 (S21W05). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 24/1114Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 23/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 23/2312Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (25 Mar), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 158
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 160/165/160
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  028/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  035/062
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  020/030-015/020-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/55/50