:Product: 0326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/1708Z from Region 3256 (S23W45). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 26/1438Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/0345Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 746 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (27 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels
on day two (28 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (29 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 159
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 160/155/145
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  011/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/20