:Product: 0327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/0636Z from Region 3256 (S21W59). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 620 km/s at 26/2203Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
27/1246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2020Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1521 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (29 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 158
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 155/145/145
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  008/008-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20