:Product: 0328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/1547Z from Region 3256 (S22W62). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 28/0022Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
27/2242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2242Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1813 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Mar), quiet to active levels on day
two (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 159
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 160/155/150
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  006/005-012/018-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/45/50