:Product: 0329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/0233Z from Region 3256 (S22W74). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (30 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 429 km/s at 29/0700Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
29/1000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/1258Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3867 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Mar), unsettled to active
levels on day two (31 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(01 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    25/10/10
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 148
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  012/018-013/018-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/50/50