:Product: 0331RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
31/0909Z from Region 3260 (N24W85). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Apr) and likely to
be low on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 31/0346Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 31/0307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 31/0258Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1162 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
Class M    15/01/01
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Mar 129
Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        31 Mar 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar  014/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  011/012-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/30
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    50/20/40