:Product: 0401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0328Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Apr,
03 Apr, 04 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 662 km/s at 01/0247Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 01/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/0937Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3744 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Apr,
03 Apr, 04 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Apr 125
Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        01 Apr 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  007/008-008/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr-04 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/45