:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/0826Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Apr,
04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 02/0443Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 02/0504Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/2207Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1234 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Apr,
04 Apr, 05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 127
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr   NA/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  008/008-007/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/45/50