:Product: 0403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/2313Z from Region 3270 (S23W04). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr,
05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 02/2210Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/1025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1933Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4292 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 134
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 014/012/010
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  011/014-010/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/40