:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
03/2353Z from Region 3270 (S23W18). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 04/0159Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 04/0006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
04/0130Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2419 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Apr, 06 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    15/15/10
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 136
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  009/012-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/25/20