:Product: 0405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 05 2205 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1.9 event observed at
05/1217Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 04/2333Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 05/0331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/2112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3213 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 137
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  009/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20