:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
06/0553Z from Region 3272 (S21E72). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr,
09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 05/2107Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1305Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4252 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 137
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 140/140/135
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20