:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
08/0146Z from Region 3272 (S21E50). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr,
11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 466 km/s at 08/0505Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/1738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/0603Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2525 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 136
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  006/005-006/005-010/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/30