:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/0608Z from Region 3272 (S21E38). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr,
12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 08/2149Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 08/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2324Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1873 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Apr, 11 Apr)
and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 140
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 140/145/150
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  008/008-009/010-010/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/45