:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
13/1043Z from Region 3279 (S20E51). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Apr, 15 Apr,
16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 13/0408Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 13/0159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/0204Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Apr, 16
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 160
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 168/168/168
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  007/008-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/25
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/50/35