:Product: 0414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1618Z from Region 3282 (N11E52). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr,
17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 13/2217Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 14/1238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/1220Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 171
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 175/180/178
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  011/012-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/35/30