:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/2327Z from Region 3282 (N11E52). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 15/0910Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/0034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/2107Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 142 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Apr, 17 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 176
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 180/178/168
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/30/15