:Product: 0416RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
16/1744Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 1196 km/s at 16/0034Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
16/0109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/1821Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Apr 178
Predicted   17 Apr-19 Apr 178/170/168
90 Day Mean        16 Apr 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15