:Product: 0419RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/0841Z from Region 3272 (S24W88). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr,
22 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 615 km/s at 18/2144Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/1025Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Apr) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Apr 147
Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        19 Apr 162

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  019/024-015/016-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/30
Minor Storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/35/40