:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/2028Z from Region 3293 (N13E82). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May,
03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 671 km/s at 29/2153Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 30/1815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/0458Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7832 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02
May, 03 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 154
Predicted   01 May-03 May 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  018/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  012/012-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20