:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
03/1045Z from Region 3293 (N13E35). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (04 May,
05 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 514 km/s at 03/1705Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/0515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
03/1238Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6786 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 May), quiet levels on
day two (05 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    55/55/50
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 156
Predicted   04 May-06 May 154/152/152
90 Day Mean        03 May 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  008/008-006/005-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/30