:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
04/0844Z from Region 3296 (N16E34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (05 May) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on days two and three (06 May, 07 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 03/2138Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
03/2154Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6983 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 May) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (06 May, 07 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    55/50/50
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 162
Predicted   05 May-07 May 162/162/164
90 Day Mean        04 May 159

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  006/005-011/014-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/30/30